Numerical Weather Prediction of Hurricane Florence (2018) and Potential Climate Impacts through Thermodynamic Modification: Synoptic and Mesoscale Dynamics

Hurricane Florence (2018) proved to be a long lived and damaging tropical cyclone which formed off the coast of the Cabo Verde Islands. On September 14^th, 1200, UTC, Florence made landfall as a weakened Category 1 Hurricane in Wrightsville Beach, NC. In the midst of landfall, Florence’s ground speed stalled to near zero mph. Because of the stalling, Florence continued to dump feet of rain along the coastline and inundation of sea water became extreme. Due to the impacts of Hurricane Florence, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate the storm and provide insight into the dynamics which played a significant role at the time of landfall. After the control case, several sensitivity experiments were conducted. The first two sensitivity experiments utilize the thermodynamic fields of ERA5 reanalysis data of 1968 and 1998 respectively to modify the thermodynamic fields in the boundary conditions of WRF-ARW control case of Hurricane Florence. These two experiments give a historical version of Florence. In addition, to study the potential future climate impacts of Hurricane Florence, the NCAR CESM Global Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Output to Support WRF/MPAS Research (CMIP5) dataset was utilized. The same approach was taken as the historical versions of Florence. The next two experiments are based on CMIP5 thermodynamic fields for 2038 under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios respectively. In the last two experiments, CMIP5 thermodynamic fields for 2068 under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used. Results suggest a corresponding intensity shift as well as track deflection in each sensitivity experiment. Based on these modifications, synoptic and mesoscale dynamics will be studied to provide insight on how Florence might change based on certain climate scenarios.