Evaluation of Forecasting Techniques for the Radius of Maximum Wind

The radius of maximum wind (RMW) is an important structural measure of tropical cyclones that can be directly linked to hazards such as storm surge. Although forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) do not forecast RMW in real-time, observations of the RMW have been quality-controlled and included in the NHC Best-Track Dataset (HURDAT2; Landsea and Franklin 2013) since 2021.

Operational guidance to forecast the RMW is limited as statistical-dynamical models (DSHP/LGEM) do not forecast RMW. A multi-linear regression technique using NHC’s official forecast (OFCL) has been developed to better predict the RMW for storm surge modeling. In this presentation we will detail the creation of a new climatological RMW model to evaluate forecast skill. We will then discuss several statistical techniques to forecast the RMW and compare the model performances to the new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). Insights into the current state of the art for RMW forecasting will be detailed and guidance offered for future development.