Comprehensive Economic Value of Skilled Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness

Military bases are extremely vulnerable to tropical cyclones (TC's) because of the dense concentration of equipment and people. Thus, the Department of Defense decrees a set of rules that must be followed by bases to prepare for an approaching storm. These rules are called Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TC-COR's); a set of preparedness levels which are dependent on the probability of 50-knot winds impacting the base within a certain time frame. Preparing a base for a TC-COR level can be extremely time-consuming and expensive necessitating the need for a cost savings model. Sampson et. al. (2012) developed a guidance system for meteorologists to follow when setting TC-COR recommendations. Gulati and Sampson (2021) studied the economic impact of this guidance system and showed that in general, a skilled forecast leads to a higher savings than an unskilled one. In this paper, we extend the results of Gulati and Sampson (2021) to include injuries and other human factors.