Analyzing the Hurricane History of Charlotte Harbor, Florida using Observed and Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

In 2022, Hurricane Ian made landfall in Charlotte Harbor, Florida as a category four hurricane, producing catastrophic damage across southwest Florida. Ian was the third major hurricane to impact the region since 2004, following Charley (2004) and Irma (2017). In this study, we analyze the tropical cyclone (TC) history of Charlotte Harbor (CH) from 1901–2022 using observed TC best tracks and two sets of synthetic TC tracks, representing the early 20^th century climate (EC, 1901–1930) and present climate (PC, 1991–2020). Using observed tracks, we investigate the patterns in CH TCs in 30-year intervals, specifically focusing on track variety, intraseasonal distributions, lifetime maximum intensity, and local maximum intensity. With the synthetic tracks, we compare the spatial and temporal distributions between the EC and PC, as well as analyze changes in seasonality, lifetime maximum intensity, local maximum intensity, and tracks. We hypothesize that there will be an increasing trend in local maximum intensity of observed CH TCs that will also manifest in the synthetic track datasets. We also expect to see manifestations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the behavior of CH TCs, given that the EC was associated with a negative AMO phase while PC is associated with a positive phase. Results of this study will help better understand the history of TC impacts to CH and southwest Florida, illustrate how the changing climate of the 20^th century impacted the region’s impacts from TCs, and place Hurricane Ian in context of the region’s hurricane history.