Impact of WindBorne Data on NCEP Operational GFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) largely rely on the accuracy of model initial states over the ocean, where relatively few atmospheric observations are available compared to the continent. WindBorne Systems has developed a novel balloon-based observation system, enabling constellations of balloons to be flown throughout the troposphere for extended periods of time. WindBorne weather balloons collect atmospheric vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction, providing valuable in-situ data compensating for the gaps over the ocean. In this study we investigate the impact of assimilating WindBorne balloon data on NCEP operational GFS (Global Forecast System) prediction for TC track and intensity. We try to understand how the supplementary WindBorne observations influence GFS analysis and forecast errors of TCs. The superobbed WindBorne data used for this study is from August-September of 2022 and 2023. The current operational NCEP GFS version 16 (GFSv16) is used to study the WindBorne balloon data impact. Global control experiments (with the same setting as in the operations) and WindBorne experiments (adding and assimilating WindBorne data) are carried out. Preliminary results indicate that WindBorne observations help improve GFS forecasts over the North Atlantic basin and have a positive impact on GFS forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks. We will present detailed results of WindBorne observation data impacts on GFS TC forecasts for 2022 and 2023.