A Climatology of Tornado Warning Skill in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Forecasts of tornadoes in landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) tend to be less skillful at all lead times compared to those in non-TC environments. Specifically, TC tornado warnings are characterized by a greater number of false alarms relative to hits when compared to non-TC tornadoes. However, previous work have examined warning skill for a small number of TCs, which may not be representative of TC tornado warning skill in general. Indeed, there exists non-trivial variability in TC tornado warning skill in past work. This study presents the first climatology of tornado warning skill for all TCs since 2011. The sensitivity of warning skill and lead time to previously shown factors (e.g., tornado distance from radar) will be quantified. The analysis will also compare the lightning and radar characteristics among hits, misses, and false alarms to identify which factors forecasters should be examining.