Using an Integrated Method of Tropical Cyclone Analysis with Microwave Imagery and Data during Difficult Forecast Scenarios

This paper presents examples from cases where an evaluation of available near real-time satellite-based microwave data may have aided in the analysis and forecasting of difficult forecast scenarios by the tropical cyclone warning centers. Although in many cases, specific remote-sensing data may not be readily available to the operational forecasters, several cases are presented where earlier data may have provided hints to the correct analysis. In other situations, there appears to be a reluctance to integrate all available data into a combined, definitive evaluation versus an analysis primarily based on the standard Dvorak tropical cyclone intensification technique using infrared satellite imagery from a geostationary satellite. Outside of aircraft reconnaissance, IR Dvorak technique is still the primary method used by tropical cyclone forecasters to determine intensification, and indirectly, positioning, for most of the global ocean basins.

This presentation will update previously described techniques and describe the wealth of new satellite-based microwave and scatterometer data that are currently available. In many cases, knowledge of the existence and how to access these data may have greatly changed the operational center’s warning or evaluation.