Distinctive South and East Asian Monsoon Circulation Responses to Global Warming

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is the most energetic circulation system. Projecting its future change is critical for the mitigation and adaptation of billions of people living in the region. There are two important components within the ASM: South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Although current state-of-the-art climate models projected increased precipitation in both SASM and EASM due to the increase of atmospheric moisture, their circulation changes differ markedly - A robust strengthening (weakening) of EASM (SASM) circulation was projected. By separating fast and slow processes in response to increased CO₂ radiative forcing, we demonstrate that EASM circulation strengthening is attributed to the fast land warming and associated Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing. In contrast, SASM circulation weakening is primarily attributed to an El Niño-like oceanic warming pattern in the tropical Pacific and associated suppressed precipitation over the Maritime Continent.