Understanding the Seasonality of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Teleconnections through the Lorenz Energy Cycle

To further our understanding on the dynamics of MJO teleconnection, this research investigates the seasonality of the MJO teleconnections and their dynamics using the Lorenz Energy Cycle. The Energy cycle has been commonly used to explore the dynamics of the atmosphere, but it has never been applied to understand the interactions between the MJO and global circulation.

The dynamics of MJO teleconnections is commonly studied using the Rossby Wave Source (RWS). My prior work demonstrated the strong seasonal variability of MJO teleconnections and investigated the causes of this seasonality through the diagnosis of the RWS. However, a complete understanding of the underlying dynamics of the interactions between the MJO and subtropical jet that generate the RWS are still limited. Furthermore, due to the linearized nature of the RWS, key processes that generate the MJO teleconnections could be missed. Therefore, to better understand the seasonality of the MJO teleconnections, a new framework needs to be adapted. The energy cycle allows for the quantification of the background state, non-linear processes, and interactions between all timescales. We hypothesize that the seasonality of the MJO teleconnections can be tied to the seasonally different amounts of available energy and the energy conversions that dominate. Furthermore, the seasonal differences in the presented teleconnection pattern can be linked to the different pathways that the MJO converts its energy to the teleconnection pattern. This research will provide us with a better understanding of seasonality of MJO teleconnection and their dynamics allowing for the improvement of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction skill in all seasons.