The U.S. hurricane warning program: its evolution and potential gap-filling initiatives

Since the first issuance of a hurricane warning for the United States by the U. S. Army Signal Corps in the 1870s, the Nation's tropical cyclone warning service has continually evolved in an attempt to satisfy customer needs for timely, understandable, and usable tropical cyclone forecast information. Part of that service has included an iterative process of selecting terminology that will effectively communicate important warning information. The consideration and integration of social science, such as effective communication, into hurricane forecasts is not a new concept. Even back in the 1940s and 1950s, forecasters were concerned with using effective terms and definitions to get users to take necessary precautions before a tropical weather event. The evolution of warning terminology and definitions since that time includes the first use of a “watch” (of any weather type) by the U. S. Weather Bureau (now National Weather Service), a change from “gale warnings” to “tropical storm warnings” for tropical-storm-force winds, and a recent extension of the lead times for tropical cyclone watches and warnings.

There are still gaps to be filled, however. Historically, tropical cyclone watches and warnings have almost exclusively referenced the wind hazard associated with tropical cyclones; the tornado and rainfall hazards have been addressed independently by tornado and flood watches/warnings. This has left a void in the explicit warning of storm surge—the one hazard that has the potential to kill large numbers of people in a single event. Another limitation of the warning program is the inability to issue tropical cyclone watches and warnings before a tropical cyclone has formed. The National Weather Service is currently investigating possible methods and products for filling these gaps.