The use of ensembles by broadcast meteorologists - an idea whose time has come

While operational forecasters have been making use of ensembles for some time now, this probabilistic approach to weather forecasting has been largely ignored by the field of broadcast meteorology. We continue to show output from deterministic computer models on a daily basis, implying a level of prognostic precision that on many days is simply not realistic. We need to find ways to better communicate the degree of uncertainty in our weather forecasts, and thus provide our viewers with a product that will allow them to more clearly understand the most likely weather scenarios in the coming days. I will give a brief summary of the methodology behind ensemble forecasting, and then give several examples of custom graphics produced at WRAL-TV. These graphics represent our first efforts in making a transition from deterministic to probabilistic weather forecasts.