Why Push? A Proposed Communications Model for NWS Warnings

Alerts and Warnings of natural hazards are the some of the most urgent messages in the realm of human communication. At this time in human development, messages can only received through the eyes and ears. It is useful to examine NWS warning messages in the context of a communications model. The model that best fits this type of message is the “Linear Communications Model” due to the need to “push” the message to the receiver. Why push? NWS warning messages are both “alerts” and “warnings” when using the definitions as given in recent studies. The NWS can produce text and graphics, but must assemble or compose the messages in house in order maintain control of the meaning. This will be demonstrated by showing the message evolution in the model. A simple subset of the Linear Model can then be used as an analysis for warning effectiveness. The only effective warning is one for which the receiver takes action. The sender must control the message through final issuance of an “official warning” to ensure proper meaning is understood by the receiver while assuring the receiver that the message is indeed official. This is why the initial alert/warning must be “pushed” by the sender. In understanding the attributes of receivers of natural hazards warnings, the NWS can properly refine the effectiveness of the warnings. This understanding is the essential first step in the application of NWS “Decision Support Services” to warnings. This presentation will also briefly touch upon messages as they may be used in developing technologies. Examples of the linear model using tsunami warnings will be presented including the SMS techniques already employed by the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center. Applications of limiting text characters will be demonstrated with a proposal for the Commercial Mobile Alert System implementation. (Picture Credit: Dan Yates, Seton Hall University)