Questioning the "Cone of Uncertainty": proposing alternate hurricane warning graphics

Hurricane warning communication has become a recent topic of debate among academics, emergency managers, and meteorologists. The current graphic used to portray vital information to people in the path of a hurricane is the “Cone of Uncertainty,” which is produced by the NHC and modified by local TV stations. Evidence suggests this graphic creates too much ambiguity, which can lead the public to incorrectly interpret its meaning. In order to achieve warning clarity, we must understand the many possible ways people are obtaining information from this graphic. In this research, ArcGis 9.3 and PowerPoint were used to create alternative hurricane warning graphics. Using these alternative graphics, citizens in Jacksonville, FL and Pensacola, FL were surveyed to ascertain which graphic each citizen preferred. These two locations were chosen to represent two demographically similar coastal communities with different hurricane strike regimes; Jacksonville, FL no direct impacts in over 100 years and Pensacola, FL many direct impacts.