1.5 Tropical Rainstorms, not Remnants

Wednesday, 22 August 2012: 2:30 PM
Georgian (Boston Park Plaza)
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather Inc., State College, PA

Tropical cyclones are classified according to wind and are named upon reaching tropical storm status. The naming draws attention to the storm, and this helps people realize there could be a threat to life and property. The classification scheme in use today is most applicable to storms at sea as well as on and near coastlines.

Once a tropical cyclone moves inland, its winds typically decrease, and its classification is downgraded. This is the general procedure, and so storms like Camille, Agnes, Floyd, Ivan and Lee (2011) were downgraded. Eventually, many storms are reclassified as remnants. This is most unfortunate, because it severely downplays the threats many of these storms still pose. Some of the worst inland flooding in history has been triggered by such storms. Until now, the flood potential has never been accounted for in the existing classification system.

It is time for a change. Named storms of tropical origin that retain flood producing potential even after their winds have weakened should be called Tropical Rainstorms. Thus, Lee would have been reclassified as Tropical Rainstorm Lee. Maintenance of the name, and recognition of what rainstorms of tropical origin can do, should be helpful in making people and institutions more aware of the threats these storms pose. The term remnant is not satisfactory.

There are reasons why this terminology has remained in use, but these reasons need to be weighed against the impact of tropical rainstorms and our ability to predict them.

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