Communicating Risk: Integrating Vigilance on the Forecast Desk

The vigilance concept aims to link meteorological warnings with potential impacts. This is achieved by communicating risk to groups ranging from emergency management organizations to the general public.

The vigilance concept was introduced to the Quebec weather office of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in 2011 and 2012 when pilot projects were run by the forecasters who issued colour-coded warnings based on potential impacts. Select partners were involved in these projects to evaluate the usefulness of the warnings. The warnings were displayed on a web-based prototype with a Google-map background where the forecasters were able to draw polygons to denote the warning areas. Officially, warnings within the Meteorological Service of Canada are linked to predefined areas over which the forecasters have no control.

For summer 2013 the forecast office is tasked with integrating the vigilance concept within the official MSC tools instead of engaging in a third pilot project. This implies changing the mindset of forecasters who have been trained to issue warnings based on quantitative thresholds. A further challenge involves using different language when issuing warnings, watches and special weather statements. This presentation will focus on lessons learned from the pilot projects of 2011 and 2012, as well as the operational approach the meteorologists are undertaking this year to integrate vigilance into the official weather products.