Next-Generation Warning Concept: Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs)

With the exception of introducing storm-based polygon methodology in 2007, National Weather Service (NWS) hazardous weather warnings have changed little in more than 40 years. While generally viewed as an effective means of protecting life and property, the overall warning system is often held up for evaluation and improvements – with the most recent effort being NOAA's Weather Ready Nation initiatives. NOAA's 20-Year Weather Research and Development Vision also lists “reinventing the severe weather warning system” as one of NOAA's “Grand Scientific Challenges.” These initiatives suggest a willingness and desire to explore new and innovative warning concepts. This presentation will introduce one such concept and the seven pillars upon which it is built. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a strategy conceived to help focus and direct next-generation science, technology and tools for forecasting environmental hazards. Recognizing, however, that any new forecasting paradigm will only be successful it effectively influences the response of end users, FACETs will also address the need to make these next-generation probabilistic forecasts understandable and actionable by decision-makers. Other presentations in the conference will address the specific activities being proposed as part of FACETs.