View from a Different World: Communicating Weather Information and Warnings in Mozambique

The current (2012-2013) wet season in Mozambique has already claimed more than 80 lives and dislocated over 150,000 people. Located on the south-east coast of Africa, Mozambique experiences some of the region's most variable weather and water resources conditions including river and flash flooding, cyclones, drought, heat, and severe thunderstorms and lightning killing about 100 people a year. In Africa, Mozambique is the third country most at risk from water and weather related hazards with as much as 58% of the population estimated to be exposed to two or more hazards. With each major shock translating to a 1.1% annual average reduction of GDP, Mozambique remains one of the poorest countries in the world and is ranked number 184 of 187 in UNDP's Human Development Index.

Facing these challenges The World Bank is working with the Mozambican national weather service (INAM – Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia) and hydrological services (DNA – Direcção Nacional de Águas and ARAs – Administrações Regionais de Águas) on a program to strengthen and optimize the physical meteorological monitoring networks, improve data management and quality control, and enhance modeling and early warning systems amongst other improvements. As part of this project, we are undertaking a socio-economic assessment of the benefits and costs of the program as well as preferences and needs for hydrometeorological products and services.

In this talk, we briefly provide an overview of Mozambique and the broad challenges faced in developing and supporting basic hydrometeorological functions and services. We then discuss two parallel efforts to assess needs and preferences for improved weather information and warnings and communication. First, we implemented an expert elicitation with sector experts on their sources, uses, and values for current and potentially improved weather and water information. This included service providers (INAM, DNA, ARAs), other governmental and non-governmental organizations focusing on social welfare (e.g., UNICEF, Red Cross), and private sector experts (e.g., transportation, agriculture, energy, services). Second, we developed a survey to elicit preferences and values to households for improved hydro-meteorological information.

A significant challenge in this effort is that approximately 80% of the Mozambican public are involved in rural farming and a large portion of these are subsistence farmers (97% of all cultivated land is estimated to be subsistence, mostly rainfed farming). We discuss the challenges and potential of these approaches and results from these efforts. We highlight potential benefits as well as gaps in improving weather warning and communication in a developing country – especially flood warnings given Mozambique's recent flood disaster. We discuss the important consideration of putting adequate resources in improving interagency exchange of water and weather information as a critical foundation for early warning systems. This includes institutional mechanisms and protocols as well as adequate IT solutions such as integrated data platforms. These “organizational” aspects of warning communication in developing countries are often overlooked as too ambitious or complex, but the gaps between institutions cause delays and miscommunication.

This work will also serve as a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Socio-Economic Research and Applications Working Group demonstration project as a role model for the assessment of preferences and values for weather information and warnings in other developing countries.