THE GFS BEYOND 7 DAYS:JUST HOW BAD IS IT, AND IS IT WORTH SHARING? (Invited Presentation)

: WITH SOCIAL MEDIA CONTINUING TO GROW AS A MEANS OF COMMUNICATING WITH OUR VIEWERS, IT IS IMPORTANT THAT WE TAKE A SERIOUS LOOK AT WHAT WE'RE PUTTING OUT THERE, AND IF IT TRULY QUALIFIES AS A PUBLIC SERVICE. IN AN ATTEMPT TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION, WE WILL LOOK AT ALL THE WEEK 2 FORECASTS FROM THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL FOR THIS PAST WINTER, AND COMPARE THEM NOT ONLY WITH REALITY, BUT ALSO WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE RESULTS OF THIS STUDY MAY POINT TO THE NEED FOR A NEW FORECAST PARADIGM IN THE OPERATIONAL WORLD.