A Cross-Cutting, Multi-Organizational Look at the Severe Weather Outbreak of 05-06 November 2018: A Case Study in the Challenges of Communicating Uncertainty

From the afternoon of 05 November 2018 severe thunderstorms developed across portions of northwest Louisiana and quickly moved east-northeast. Additional thunderstorms developed farther east, also moving east-northeast. By the morning of 06 November 2018, preliminary estimates indicated more than 30 tornado and 110 straight-line wind reports had occurred. The vast majority of these reports occurred after dark, lasting well into the early morning hours of 06 November.

The severe weather outbreak of 05-06 November 2018 occurred in an environment often characterized by meteorologists as “high-shear, low-CAPE” (HSLC). In HSLC environments, relatively cool surface temperatures inhibit the development of large amounts of atmospheric buoyancy, while at the same time, strong kinematic fields yield a highly conditional threat for tornadoes, including strong tornadoes. Oftentimes these severe weather outbreaks can last well into the overnight hours.

Events such as this one pose numerous challenges for meteorologists across the weather enterprise. This presentation will take a look at the overall setup for this severe weather outbreak and discuss both the meteorological and communication challenges faced by meteorologists at the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS Nashville, TN, forecast office, and at WKRN-TV in Nashville, TN. Time permitting, additional discussion will focus on new products and services under development within the National Weather Service aimed at providing additional insights as to the evolution of severe thunderstorm hazards in rapidly evolving situations.