Climate Change and National Security: People not Polar Bears

While the concept of climate change and climate risks are discussed widely in the media, the story or discussion is normally framed as an environmental issue. Additionally, many examples are from locations that are distant to the audience, either geographically or temporally. While the environmental message is important, unfortunately it motivates a relatively small segment of the general public, and the population that can be reached with an environmental message already has been. Significant numbers of Americans can still then view climate risk as a ‘niche issue’ that is of little concern to them personally.

Framing climate risks as primarily an environmental challenge, and one that may often be perceived as distant inadvertently hinders the case for near-term action to manage this issue and buy down risk. Many other climate change talks delve extensively into the (well-established) science of climate change, with ample graphs of temperatures rising, sea-ice declining, and projections to come in the year 2100. While these talks are useful for basic science education, they have been shown to have little effect at persuading people to take action if they were not already inclined to do so. Additionally, such talks can inadvertently perpetuate the false premise that climate change is primarily a science issue – and ‘someone else’ will solve it.

This talk provides an alternate framing for climate change, one that is about us, about water, and about the changes we are experiencing today and will continue to observe the rest of our lives. While certainly not everyone is motivated by security, general support for the U.S. Armed Forces is as high or higher than for any other segment of society. It is therefore useful to inform the public that this highly regarded institution is both threatened by a changing climate and is already taking actions to minimize the impacts.

These changes collectively comprise a risk to our national security – one the U.S. Department of Defense and our allied nations have been studying and preparing for over a decade, and this talk will discuss why climate change is a national security issue. While the touch will I touch briefly on some of the basic science simply to show why virtually all mainstream climate scientists are exceptionally confident of our basic understanding about our changing climate, most of the talk will discuss exactly how and why climate change is a risk to our national security.

Climate change alters the operating environments and potential missions our Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines deploy to and may be called to fight in, which in turn requires different training or equipment to ensure the effectiveness of our troops. Climate change threatens many of our military bases and training ranges, whether from rising sea levels and ever-increasing storm surges, flash floods, droughts, heat stress and even wildfires. Finally, climate change can force already unstable and fragile regions of strategic interest to the United States or our Allies into chaos and humanitarian tragedy, with a net result of uncontrolled human migration and U.S. intervention into conflicts we had no desire or intention to engage in.

This talk will discuss how the U.S. military, and the U.S. Congress in its oversight role, assesses and addresses these challenges. I will conclude with an assessment of future challenges and opportunities regarding climate change, from science, attribution, policy, and political perspectives. In addition, this talk will address how to effectively talk about climate change through the use of analogies, plain, non-jargon English, and even a little humor.