J1.7
Results and Analysis of the Tampa Bay Nowcast Forecast System
Mark Vincent, University of South Flordia, Tampa, FL; and D. Burwell and M. Luther
This paper will detail the results of a one year audit of the Tampa Bay Nowcast Forecast System. This system consists of automated nowcast, forecast and on-demand hindcast to forecast protocols, which have been operating in a test research mode for several years. The nowcast model is updated every 12 minutes. During the one year audit, the nowcast model was very reliable and accurate. For model water levels, the computed NOS skill scores were SD=95.6%, SA=95.4%, and SL=94.6%. For model currents, the skill scores were SD=91.7%, SA=91.5%, and SL=90.4%. With respect to RMSE, the nowcast model showed an increased skill of 80% relative to tidal harmonic water levels and 56% relative to harmonic currents. The forecast model performs 25 hour forecasts every 4 hours. The open boundary water levels are provided by tidal harmonics and the NWS Storm Surge Gulf Model (SSGM). Wind forcing is provided by the NWS Nested Grid Model (NGM). Preliminary analysis of the model forecasts indicates an improvement relative to tidal predictions. Automated nowcast and forecast model products and real-time data observations can be found at ompl.marine.usf.edu
Joint Session 1, Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Forecasting-Joint Session with ECM and ERF (Please note some presentation times have been changed from the preliminary program published)
Wednesday, 7 November 2001, 9:00 AM-4:21 PM
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