J1.8
One-Year Assessment of a Nowcast/Forecast System for Galveston Bay
Richard Schmalz, NOAA/NOS, Silver Spring, MD
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has developed a nowcast/forecast system over Galveston Bay using a modified version of the Blumberg-Mellor (1987) three-dimensional hydrodynamic model as discussed by Schmalz (1997,2000). The nowcast component works directly from the PORTS universal flat file format (PUFFF) files while during the forecast the NWS Aviation and Extratropical Storm Surge Models are used to provide the meteorological and Gulf of Mexico subtidal water level residual forcings, respectively. In addition, a one-way coupled fine resolution Houston Ship Channel model (Schmalz, 1997) has also been incorporated into the system. Daily 24 hour nowcasts and 36 hour forecasts of water surface elevation, currents at prediction depth (4.6m) as well as near-surface and near-bottom temperature and salinity have been performed using both bay and channel models in a pseudo-operational setting since April 2000. Herein, nowcast and forecast results are assessed over the one-year period April 2000 through March 2001 based on the NOS (1999) formal acceptance statistical criteria. In addition, the ability of the system to forecast low water level events associated with cold frontal passages is also assessed. In conclusion, a strategy for the development of a truly operational nowcast/forecast system is advanced and plans for additional improvements are discussed.
Joint Session 1, Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Forecasting-Joint Session with ECM and ERF (Please note some presentation times have been changed from the preliminary program published)
Wednesday, 7 November 2001, 9:00 AM-4:21 PM
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