Fourth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology

Thursday, 15 November 2001: 10:50 AM
A model to predict lightning-caused fire occurrences
Kerry Anderson, Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB, Canada
This paper presents a model to predict the probability that a lightning flash will lead to a detectable fire. This is done by estimating the probabilities of the lightning flash having a long-continuing current, the probability of ignition, the probability of survival, and the probability of arrival. Individual probabilities are combined to predict the number of ignitions, holdovers, and detectable fires within a region from the lightning, noon weather, and forest inventory data. The model is currently design to run operationally within the Spatial Fire Management System (SFMS). A validation study within Saskatchewan is currently being conducted.

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