This paper presents a model to predict the probability that a lightning flash will lead to a detectable fire. This is done by estimating the probabilities of the lightning flash having a long-continuing current, the probability of ignition, the probability of survival, and the probability of arrival. Individual probabilities are combined to predict the number of ignitions, holdovers, and detectable fires within a region from the lightning, noon weather, and forest inventory data. The model is currently design to run operationally within the Spatial Fire Management System (SFMS). A validation study within Saskatchewan is currently being conducted.