Thursday, 15 November 2001: 3:20 PM
Performance of the Haines Index during August 2000 for Montana
Compared to 1990-1995 averages, the summer of 2000 had an atypically high
number of high Haines Index days in the northern Rocky Mountains. The
summer of 1999, however, had still more high Haines Index days in the
region. In contrast, the area burnt by wildfires in this region in 2000 was
significantly greater than that in 1999. This could be construed as a
failure of the Haines Index, but there are other possible explanations. In
particular, the Haines Index is not suitable on days with high winds, and if
the 2000 fires were wind-driven on many days, then the Haines Index was not
appropriate for those days. The authors examine data from three large fires
in southwestern Montana in August 2000, comparing daily area burnt with
nearby daily Haines Index values for only those days where winds were
relatively calm. If the results show a positive correlation between Haines
Index and burn area, it will support the validity of the Index as a measure
of the potential spread rate for fires on low wind days (i.e., plume
dominated fires).
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