Thursday, 15 November 2001: 1:31 PM
Fire danger and the Standardized Precipitation Index (Formerly Paper number 8.3)
Wildland fire management agencies are increasingly interested in climate information and long-range forecasts for strategic resource planning of wildfire suppression events and fire use opportunities. One indicator of climate patterns that may be useful for fire business is the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). SPI is an index-based description of precipitation surplus or deficit over a user-defined range of time-scales. The SPI for various geographic locations is analyzed along with measures of fire potential based on some operationally used National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indices (e.g., Energy Release Component, 1000-hr fuel moisture). The results will contribute to a larger study of SPI as a predictor of long-range fire business.