(Invited Talk) Some lessons learned with quasi-operational coastal ocean nowcast/forecast systems

For the past several years, nowcast/forecast systems have been run by the Ocean Prediction Experimental Laboratory (OPEL)at RSMAS in a quasi-operational (i.e., real-time, semi-automatic) mode for two quite different coastal ocean regimes; namely, Prince William Sound, Alaska and the Straits of Florida/East Florida Shelf. Realistic bottom topography, synoptic mesoscale NWP forcing, and tidal forcing have been used, together with open boundary conditions provided from the Navy's operational global ocean forecast model (Global – NCOM), to drive mesoscale-admitting implementations of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The skill of the nowcast/forecast systems is estimated by comparisons of model output with the extant, albeit sparse, real-time observing systems. Insights are gained into observing system needs for the future, and new dynamical questions are identified. These activities and investigations have pioneered some of the scientific and technical issues that are fundamental to the future success of the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS), in general, and the Coastal Ocean Observing System (COOS), in particular.