(Invited Talk) Prototyping a Real-Time Ocean Forecasting System off the U.S. West Coast

The development and implementation of a real-time ocean forecast system based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) off the coast of California are described. Results produced by the real-time ocean forecast system during two field experiments during the summers of 2003 and 2006 are presented. The real-time ocean forecasting system is based on a nested ROMS configuration including the U.S. West coastal ocean at 15-km resolution, the central California coastal ocean at 5-km, and the Monterey Bay region at 1.5-km. All nested models have 32 vertical sigma (or terrain-following) layers. Using the 3-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) scheme, we assimilate both the satellite altimeter data and other complementary data sets (both in situ and remote sensing) every six hours to produce nowcast (or analysis) field, from which a 48-hour forecast can be performed. The nowcast and forecast fields are first compared with the assimilated data for consistency check. An evaluation of the ROMS nowcast and forecast against the independent measurements that are not assimilated into models is then conducted. Predictability analysis will also be presented and discussed.

The above described real-time ocean forecast system is currently being implemented for real-time operational demonstrations on the 24/7 basis. The system will provide 3-dimensional ocean nowcast and 48-hour forecast fields every six hours. We will share our early experiences interacting with application users (e.g., coast guard, oil spill response team, coastal resource managers). To relocate such an ocean forecasting system in the Alaska coastal waters will also be discussed.