Using autocorrelation to evaluate persistence forecasts for discrete wind vector fields in the National Capital Region

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Air Resources Laboratory, under its UrbaNet program, operates a network of high spatial density surface (rooftop) meteorological stations in the National Capital Region (NCR). As part of the UrbaNet NCR testbed studies, this investigation focuses on determining how long persistence forecasts can be considered statistically valid for the time dependent wind vector fields. An autocorrelation analysis is performed for a number of stations within the NCR to determine critical forecast lead times. Strategies in addressing partially correlated measurements in the autocorrelation analyses, and combining individual station characteristics to evaluate persistence forecast lead times for the vector field are discussed.