Thursday, 15 May 2003: 1:45 PM
Rong-Ming Hu, University of Quebec, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Girard and J. P. Blanchet
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As we all know, Arctic is the most vulnerable region to global warming
caused by increasing greenhouse gases. From the observations
of recent years, there is still not enough evidence to draw the conclution of
the Arctic warming as most Global Circulation Models (GCMs) suggested.
the uncertainties are not only from lack of obsevation data,
but also numerical simulation itself as the unclear unique
atmospheric compositions and physical processes over the
polar region. Aerosol and dehydration effects have been recognized
early by Blanchet and Girard (1994) to be cooling the warming trend from the
increasing radiatively active trace gases. In this study, we have used the
Northern aerosol regional climate model (NARCM) to quantify the aerosol effect
on the Arctic climate change. The direct and indirect radiative forcing and
climate effect of
aerosols such as Arctic haze sulfate, black carbon, organic and dust will
be estimated from our NARCM simulations.
In order to identify the drawbacks of our current climate model simulations,
the Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ARCMIP) has
offered us excellent chance for validation and inter-comparison of
parameterization methods of sea ice, radiation, clouds and surface
processes. The enhanced observation datasets such as the Surface Heat
Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) and the Atmospheric Radiation
Measurement (ARM) can be directly compared to our model simulations
of time period from October 1997 to October 1998. From our preliminary
results, We find our model
simulation is colder than the observation over the Alaska region. The
aerosols have significent impacts on the Arctic climate change. Dehydration
strongly occured at the lower of troposphere.
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