Modelling the future of Canadian Arctic ice

With the intent to provide a longterm forecast of Arctic ice cover, especially for the application of Canadian interests, results from two regional ice-ocean coupled models are presented. The first model covers the entire Arctic ocean, including the northern North Atlantic, Labrador Sea and Hudson Bay and is run from 1950-2029 with a horizontal resolution of 50 km. Its output provides lateral open boundary conditions for the second model, which covers the Canadian Archipelago region with a resolution of 9 km.

The atmospheric forcing applied to both models is a combination of data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and model output from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA). Anomalies from the CCCMA model for 1950- 2029 are added to the climatological 1950-1990 mean from NCEP.

The results include validation of the models for 1950-2000, and a forecast of the ice cover for 2000-2029.