Predicting fire weather severity using seasonal forecasts

This paper presents a methodology to predict the fire weather severity for an upcoming fire season using Environment Canada's seasonal forecasts, the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) and observations stored in the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). Fire-weather severity was evaluated by comparing the forecasted Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), an index within the CFFDRS, to the average SSR. Calculations of forecasted and average SSR were conducted for a number of stations across Canada. Average SSRs were based on average weather conditions per station from 1971 to 2000 as calculated by the CWFIS. Forecasted SSRs were created by applying seasonal anomalies systematically to each daily average weather value per station using the seasonal outlook as provided by Environment Canada. Maps showing the forecasted and average SSR were produced and a map showing the ratio of the two was used to indicate the predicted fire weather severity for 2007.