Rapid Response Field Observations in Support of Improving BlueSky Smoke Predictions

The BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework, a smoke prediction tool developed with support from the National Fire Plan, is generating real-time smoke predictions in several regions covering the continental United States. Results will be presented from a field study which was undertaken to validate and improve the BlueSky framework. This rapid response field study was conducted on the Tripod Complex Wildland Fire in north central Washington during the summer of 2006. The goal was to measure PM2.5 downwind of the fire to characterize the location and extent of the smoke plume. Smoke observations also provided vital information used by operational fire and air quality management. The Tripod Complex started July, 24 2006 by lightning, lasted over two months, and burned approximately 175,000 acres. This provided an opportunity for long-term evaluation of the modeling framework in areas where smoke impacts are often severe. Preliminary results from the field study indicate that the predicted location of the smoke plume and PM2.5 concentrations are very sensitive to actual acres burned, timing of the burn, and location of the actively burning front of the fire.