Automated verification of the BlueSky smoke modeling framework

BlueSky is a modeling framework that provides real-time predictions of surface smoke concentrations from prescribed fire, wildfire and agricultural burn activities to aid land managers. Developed in the Pacific Northwest, BlueSky has been implemented through the United States by the Forest Service as well as other state and local agencies. An essential component of any model/modeling system, is a means for users to evaluate performance. For smoke modeling, a verification system is necessary because land managers need to evaluate their burn decisions against potential National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) exceedances, which requires a clear understanding of the accuracy of the predicted particulate matter (PM) concentration fields. An automated system for evaluating BlueSky smoke concentrations has been developed and will be made web accessible. Each day, observational air quality data is obtained via the EPA AirNow site which collects AQ data throughout the United States by voluntary submissions of various state, country, city, etc agencies. The observations and forecast PM2.5 are analysed and presented via the web with statistical analysis.