Eight years of seasonal climate forecasting for the wildfire management community

This talk reviews eight years of seasonal climate forecasts in support of the wildfire

management community. Starting with simple ENSO composite-based forecasts for

the spring through summer wildfire season, I have contributed climate diagnostic

and prognostic assessments since 2000, mostly at annual assessment workshops.

This period coincides with a stretch of very active fire seasons in the Western U.S.

Stepwise multiple regression-based techniques were introduced in 2002 to support

southwestern U.S. precipitation forecasts, and will be assessed in parallel. If possible,

the link between moisture forecasts and actual fire occurrences will be explored as

well.