Extended Abstract (128K)J13.18
POAMA: an Australian ocean-atmosphere model for climate prediction
Guomin Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and O. Alves, A. Zhong, N. Smith, A. Schiller, G. Meyers, F. Tseitkin, and S. Godfrey
The Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) is a state-of-the-art seasonal to interannual seasonal forecast system based on a coupled ocean/ atmosphere model. POAMA was developed in a joint project involving the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) and CSIRO Marine Research. POAMA uses the Bureau of Meteorology atmospheric model and the Australian Community Ocean Model and is initialized with ocean temperature data. The model has been tested and verified over the period since 1987 and a new 8-month forecast is produced every day. The ensemble of forecasts is used to provide guidance for operational climate services. This paper will describe some of the unique characteristics of the POAMA system, including its ability to capture aspects of the Maddern-Julian Oscillation. Several specific cases will be presented to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the model and to show some of the factors that determine the different evolution of individual ensemble members.
Joint Session 13, Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Room 6C
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