Joint Session 13
	Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
	Organizers: Michele M. Rienecker, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University
	8:30 AM	J13.1	Evolution of the 2002-03 El Niño   Michael J. McPhaden, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA
	8:45 AM	J13.2	Predictability of the 1997 and 2002 El Ninos   Alicia Karspeck, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Cane and D. Chen
	9:00 AM	J13.3	The termination of the 2002-3 El Niño   Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattl, WA; and D. E. Harrison
	9:15 AM	J13.4	The effect of ocean data assimilation on the spring predictability barrier of ENSO during the 1993–2002 decade   Augustin Vintzileos, GEST-UMBC and GMAO-NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, and S. Schubert
		J13.5	TRMM and the forecasting of the 2002-03 El Niño   Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Adler
	9:30 AM	J13.6	Development of a new seasonal forecast model at NCEP   Hua-Lu Pan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha, W. Wang, and G. White
	9:45 AM		Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	11:00 AM	J13.7	Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal Climate Means: Sensitivity to Annual Cycle and ENSO Variations   Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan
	11:15 AM	J13.8	Observational impact on seasonal forecast skill using the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system   Chaojiao Sun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and C. L. Keppenne
	11:30 AM	J13.9	The Gerrity equitable skill score as a near optimal alternative to the modified Heidke score for verification of categorical seasonal forecasts   Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
	11:45 AM	J13.10	Generalized Inversion of the Bryan & Cox ocean model and Tropical Atmosphere -Ocean (TAO ) Data   Andrew F. Bennett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and B. S. Chua
	12:00 PM		Lunch Break
	1:30 PM	J13.11	Representing model uncertainty in ensemble-based weather and climate prediction   Tim Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
	2:00 PM	J13.12	Initialization of unstable coupled systems by breeding ensembles   Shu-Chih Yang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Cai, M. Pena, and E. Kalnay
		J13.13	Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles   Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Ross, J. M. Fritsch, C. Hosler, R. H. Grumm, and R. James
	2:15 PM	J13.14	ENSO forecast by Markov model since 1996: Strength, Weakness and Improvement   Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. Kousky
	2:30 PM	J13.15	Predictability of extratropical stormtrack variations   Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh
	2:45 PM	J13.16	Predictability of Monthly Means based on Information Theory   Timothy M. DelSole, COLA, Calverton, MD
	3:00 PM		Coffee Break
	3:30 PM	J13.17	Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability   Michael K. Tippett, Internation Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole
	3:45 PM	J13.18	POAMA: an Australian ocean-atmosphere model for climate prediction   Guomin Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and O. Alves, A. Zhong, N. Smith, A. Schiller, G. Meyers, F. Tseitkin, and S. Godfrey
	4:00 PM	J13.19	Seasonal Predictions from the FSU Regional Climate Model   Steven D. Cocke, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and T. E. LaRow and D. W. Shin
	4:15 PM	J13.20a	A Hierarchy of Data-Based Enso Models   D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. V. Kravtsov and M. Ghil

Thursday, 15 January 2004: 8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Room 6C

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

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