J13.4
The effect of ocean data assimilation on the spring predictability barrier of ENSO during the 1993–2002 decade
Augustin Vintzileos, GEST-UMBC and GMAO-NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, and S. Schubert
Persistence forecast of the Niño 3 index show a sharp drop in correlation skill during boreal spring. This drop in skill serves to define the spring predictability barrier of ENSO (SPBE). The predictability barrier is studied with NASA’s Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project forecasting system. The NSIPP-1 coupled general circulation model simulates the ENSO phenomenon realistically in multi-decadal free integrations and a SPBE occurs in the seasonal autocorrelation function of the Niño 3 index. Analysis of the mechanisms of the simulated ENSO suggests that the SPBE can be significantly reduced in forecast with initialized comprehensive coupled models. This suggestion is supported by comparison of ENSO hindcast produced by the NSIPP-1 coupled forecasting system with and without ocean data assimilation during the 1993 – 2002 decade.
Joint Session 13, Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Room 6C
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