J13.8
Observational impact on seasonal forecast skill using the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system
Chaojiao Sun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker and C. L. Keppenne
The impact of different observation suites on the forecast skill of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled model is investigated by a series of forecast experiments initialized with the NSIPP ocean data assimilation system. An optimal interpolation scheme is used to assimilate in situ temperature data from 1993 to 2002, including TAO array data. The impact of TAO array data on forecast skill is investigated by data withholding, i.e., only part of the TAO data are used in certain experiments. The skill in forecasting Nino-3 and upper ocean heat content is assessed. Different assimilation strategies are employed to compare the effectiveness of the assimilation. We will consider issues such as salinity adjustments and geostrophic current correction so as to achieve balanced initialization. .
Joint Session 13, Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Room 6C
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