Extended Abstract (592K)6.6
On the Chances of Being Struck by Cloud-to-Ground Lightning
E. Philip Krider, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. E. Kehoe
Measurements of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning can now be used to obtain the spatial patterns of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strikes under individual thunderstorms and over larger regions on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. We will give examples of these patterns, and then we will show how a measurement of the average area density of strikes, Ng, together with an assumption of complete spatial randomness, can be used to obtain the probability density that describes the chances that the closest lightning strike will be within any given distance of an arbitrary point within that region in the future. Preliminary tests of this function show that it describes experimental data rather well, but such tests are limited by the accuracy of the measurements.
Session 6, Statistical Climatology (Room 602/603)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 8:30 AM-11:30 AM, Room 602/603
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