20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction


The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Short Range Eensemble Forecast (SREF) System: Evaluation of an Initial Condition Ensemble vs. Multiple Model Physics Ensemble Approach

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, G. DiMego, T. Black, H. Juang, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier, B. Zhou, Z. Toth, and S. Tracton

The NCEP multi-IC and multi-model short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system has been operationally running since May 2001. Ensemble members grouping by model is a main concern from field forecasters. To overcome this problem, a new physics ensemble system which addresses more in model physics diversity has been developed and is now under testing and evaluation. The preliminary results show that adding physics diversity improves the SREF system in general. This presentation will report some of our findings in detail from the comparison study between the multi-IC ensemble and the multi-physics ensemble within short range in time (1-3 days). For the current NCEP SREF system and products, please see the following web site: http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (432K)

Session 21, Ensemble Forecasting: Part I (ROOM 605/606)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Room 605/606

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