Session 21 |
| | Ensemble Forecasting: Part I (ROOM 605/606) |
| | Chair: Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
|
| 11:00 AM | 21.1 | Performance of ensemble forecasts with multiple versions of NCEP's GFS model
Dingchen Hou, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus |
| 11:15 AM | 21.2 | On the need for perturbed LBCs in limited-area ensemble forecasts 
Paul Nutter, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and D. Stensrud |
| 11:30 AM | 21.3 | The NOAA/NWS/NCEP Short Range Eensemble Forecast (SREF) System: Evaluation of an Initial Condition Ensemble vs. Multiple Model Physics Ensemble Approach
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. McQueen, G. DiMego, T. Black, H. Juang, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier, B. Zhou, Z. Toth, and S. Tracton |
| 11:45 AM | 21.4 | A non-linear fuzzy set technique for combining precipitation forecasts 
Brian P. Mackey, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL |
| 12:00 PM | 21.5 | Ensemble methods for seasonal limited-area forecasts
Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. al |