J12.2
The Missing Forecasts: A discussion of the Gap between extended numerical weather prediction and seasonal climate forecasts
Chester F. Ropelewski, IRI, Columbia University, Palisades, NY
The later half of the 20th century has witnessed a stunning increase in our ability to predict day-to-day weather further and further into the future. Routine daily predictions no extend almost to the theoretical limits of predictability. At the same time understanding of seasonal climate variability and prediction of seasonal climate anomalies have made enormous strides, particularly when under the influence of the El Niño or La Niña phenomenon. However, little progress has been made in predictions for the periods in between i.e., from more than two weeks to below the seasonal temporal scale. In this temporal range the spectrum is red and the influence of initial conditions dissipates into chaos while weather “noise” negates any advantages gained from predictability associated with boundary conditions. However, this temporal range is precisely where a number of users are looking to our science for help. This paper attempts to better define the problem and suggest where recent and future research might provide some improvements in our abilities to predict climate and the statistics of weather in the temporal ranges spanning the period 2 weeks between 3 months. .
Joint Session 12, Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Room 6C
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