Extended Abstract (1.1M)P3.8
Application of Scale-Recursive Estimation to Ensemble Forecasts: A Comparison of Coarse and Fine Resolution Simulations of a Deep Convective Storm
Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, V. Venugopal, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou
The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is used to produce multiple resolution ensemble forecasts for a tornadic thunderstorm case that occurred over Fort Worth, TX on 28-29 March 2000. A five-member scaled lagged average forecasting (SLAF) ensemble is generated for each resolution ranging from coarse (24 km) to fine (storm-scale, 3 km). A single forecast at fine resolution (3 km) is also generated. Scale-recursive estimation (SRE) is then applied to merge the model precipitation output by blending the coarse resolution ensembles with statistical information from the fine resolution forecast and/or high resolution NEXRAD Level-II radar data (remapped to 1.5 km grid-scale ARPS domain) to form a precipitation estimate with statistical information comparable to a more expensive fine resolution ensemble forecast. The potential applications of this merging technique in QPF verification and storm-scale rainfall prediction are examined.
Poster Session 3, Wednesday Posters
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Room 4AB
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