Presenter: John D. Wiener, Program on Environment and Behavior, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0468 Ph: 303-492-6746; Fax 303-492-1231;

Because there is need in much of the U.S. West to move water from agriculture to urban uses, as is in many parts of the world where urbanization is taking place, concerns arise over how to make changes in ways which maintain desired rural social and environmental conditions. Seasonal climate predictions are, in theory, a wonderful tool to improve water management for urban purposes, because they allow less damaging transitions when there is unusual need for supply in excess of that acquired for base load (applying the analogy of electrical load demand, divided into base or constant demand, seasonal peaking (especially for outdoor use), and very short-duration peaking, which is not relevant to water acquisition and transfer). Similarly, in theory, seasonal forecasts, especially coupled with hydrologic modeling that improves flow forecasting, should provide substantial benefits in more efficiently allocated water on the farm. Now that seasonal forecasts are available, why have the expected applications been so slow to appear?

This presentation will urge climatologists and climate forecast interpreters to "keep the faith!" despite the apparent recalcitrance or conservatism of the small agricultural sector, which in our study area has made little use of this new information. The Colorado Water Bank Experiment will be described, updating past presentations, in terms of three sets of issues. (1) Effective communication of the new information and the possibilities for response has not yet been taken very seriously, with some contrasting exceptions including the NOAA RISA projects. (2) Capacity to respond is being developed at varying speeds, in terms of the state apparatus and legal structure; the basin hydrology and water management situation; the organizational policies involved; the ditch distributional organizations; and the individual's capacity to respond. (3) Acceptability of responses in terms of social and "small c" cultural settings will be addressed, because of their importance in retarding or preventing implementation of the possibilities.

The study area's experience will also be related to the reports of state and regional drought experience in 2002, and to the problems of adaptation for climate change as well as climate variability. Finally, a last point will address the need to move beyond the "stability bias" in the response to drought and drought mitigation planning, as the operational decisions affecting adaptation to climate variation.