84th AMS Annual Meeting

Tuesday, 13 January 2004: 3:30 PM
The Evolution of Daily Forecast Verification for Shuttle Landing Sites
Room 3A
Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX
Poster PDF (182.8 kB)
After the 1986 Challenger accident, the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group at the Johnson Space Center began issuing daily forecasts and collecting verification data for shuttle landing sites in the Continental United States, Spain, Morocco, and The Gambia. Specifically, these sites are: 1) the Kennedy Space Center Shuttle Landing Facility, Florida, 2) Edwards AFB, California, 3) White Sands Space Harbor, New Mexico, 4) Zaragoza, Spain, 5) Moron, Spain, 6) Ben Guerir, Morocco, and 7) Banjul, The Gambia. This effort was done in order to maintain forecast proficiency while preparing for the Shuttle's Return to Flight. SMG continues to issue daily Shuttle landing site forecasts, which are verified based on shuttle weather flight rule conditions. Verification times are dependent on the launch and landing times of the next scheduled shuttle mission. Some daily SMG forecast verification statistics have been maintained since 1987 and are periodically reviewed and used to help develop or refine shuttle weather flight rules. Development of a standardized database has enhanced the verification efforts. Output statistics are generated for each forecaster and for the office as a whole. This poster depicts the evolution of SMG's daily forecast verification, trends in SMG forecast performance, and demonstrates the processes necessary to fully utilize all SMG forecast verification products in meeting customer demands for forecast accuracy statistics.

AMS 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, Washington, January 11-15, 2004

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