Program: 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences (84th AMS Annual Meeting)

17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

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Saturday, 10 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

SAT 10 JAN

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 10 January 2004

Short Course/Student Conference Registration

Sunday, 11 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

SUN 11 JAN

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

Short Course Registration

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 11 January 2004

Conference Registration

Monday, 12 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

Mon 12 Jan

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 12 January 2004

Registration continues through Thursday, 15 January

9:00 AM-4:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

Forecast Systems (Room 602/603)

Location: Room 602/603

Sponsor: 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS; Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/FSL

Papers:

9:00 AM

1.1

An Experimental Severe Weather Nowcast Algorithm Based on a Back-propagation Neural Network and a Comparison with an Algorithm Based on Multiple Linear Regression

Yerong Feng, Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, China; and D. H. Kitzmiller

Poster PDF (133.8 kB)

9:30 AM

1.2

Statistical algorithms for short-term wind energy forecasting

Kristin Larson, 3 Tier Environmental Forecast Group, Inc., Seattle, WA; and T. Gneiting

http://www.3tiergroup.com

Poster PDF (71.2 kB)

9:45 AM

1.3

Statistical Wind Power Forecasting for U.S. Wind Farms

Michael Milligan, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Schwartz and Y. H. Wan

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (358.2 kB)

10:00 AM

1.4

Statistical models of aircraft icing

Matthew Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Wolff and T. Fowler

Poster PDF (329.9 kB)

10:15 AM

1.5

Statistical Models for 1-2 Day Warm Season Lightning Prediction for Canada and the Northern United States

William R. Burrows, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and C. Price and L. J. Wilson

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (93.7 kB)

10:30 AM

1.6

Toward a new Canadian medium-range Perfect-Prog temperature forecast system

Bertrand Denis, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and R. Verret

Poster PDF (70.6 kB)

10:45 AM

1.7

Aviation guidance from the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)

Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

11:00 AM

1.8

Results of the application of the Canadian Updateable Model Output Statistics System to the Great Lakes marine forecast problem

Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson and M. Vallée

Poster PDF (376.7 kB)

11:30 AM

1.9

Combining Global and Local Grid-Based Bias Correction for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

Yulia Gel, George Washington Univ., Washington, DC; and A. Raftery and T. Gneiting

11:45 AM

1.10

Using new remotely-sensed datasets in MOS development: A step toward true high-resolution statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts

Mark S. Antolik, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Poster PDF (2.4 MB)

12:00 PM

1.11

Severe weather as seen via a preliminary sounding climatology and a wind adjusted convective index (WACI)

Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA

Poster PDF (1013.8 kB)

12:15 PM

1.12

An algorithm for variable selection with an application to meteorological teleconnections.

Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and W. K. -. M. Lau, A. Winter, and A. Veneros

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (674.6 kB)

12:30 PM

1.3a

Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

1:15 PM

1.7a

Lunch Break

3:00 PM

1.10a

Formal Poster Session Viewing with Coffee Break

4:30 PM-4:30 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

Sessions end for the day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

7:15 PM-7:15 PM: Monday, 12 January 2004

Fred Sanders Banquet

Tuesday, 13 January 2004

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

TUE 13 JAN

8:30 AM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

Forecast Evaluation (Room 3A)

Location: Room 3A

Sponsor: 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC

Papers:

8:30 AM

2.1

Verifying probabilistic forecasts: calibration and sharpness

Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery, F. Balabdaoui, and A. Westveld

9:00 AM

2.2

Assessing the Skill of Yes/No Forecasts for Markov Observations

William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY; and D. Ruppert

http://wmbriggs.com/public/weathermarkov.pdf

Poster PDF (219.6 kB)

9:15 AM

2.3

The minimum spanning tree (MST) histogram as a verification tool for multidimensional ensemble forecasts

Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

9:30 AM

2.4

Selecting METARs to verify Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts

Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Braid and A. Holmes

Poster PDF (405.0 kB)

9:45 AM

2.5

Improving forecast verification through network design

Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/staff/ericg

Poster PDF (262.2 kB)

10:00 AM

2.6

Defining observation fields for verification of spatial forecasts of convection

Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hart and B. G. Brown

Poster PDF (228.9 kB)

10:15 AM

2.7

A Prototype Verification System for Examining NDFD Forecasts

Valery J. Dagostaro, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. A. Shaffer, M. J. Schenk, J. L. Gorline, and A. A. Taylor

Poster PDF (375.3 kB)

10:45 AM

2.8

Spatial verification using the relative operating characteristic curve

Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and W. R. Burrows

Poster PDF (243.1 kB)

11:00 AM

2.9

Examining the sensitivity of various performance measures

Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL and NOAA/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain

Poster PDF (235.0 kB)

11:15 AM

2.10

The Critical Success Index and warning strategy

Harry Gerapetritis, NOAA/NWS, Greer, SC; and J. M. Pelissier

Poster PDF (216.3 kB)

11:30 AM

2.11

Geospatial Uncertainty Analysis and Gridded Forecast Verification

Michael E. Splitt, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Cook and E. Petrescu

Poster PDF (554.3 kB)

11:45 AM

2.4A

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

1:00 PM

2.7A

Lunch Break

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

Extreme Weather and Climate (Room 3A)

Location: Room 3A

Sponsor: 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC

Papers:

3:30 PM

3.1

The Evolution of Daily Forecast Verification for Shuttle Landing Sites

Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX

Poster PDF (182.8 kB)

3:45 PM

3.2

Objective Identification of extreme-most anomalous daily max/min historical temperature patterns using principal components analysis

Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA

Poster PDF (365.4 kB)

4:00 PM

3.3

Extremes and millennial trends in the Carpathian Basin using the Rethly documentary collection

Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz and Z. Molnar

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)

4:15 PM-4:15 PM: Tuesday, 13 January 2004

Sessions end for the day

Wednesday, 14 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Wed 14 Jan

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Bayesian Probability Forecasting (Room 602/603)

Location: Room 602/603

Sponsor: 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR

Papers:

8:30 AM

4.1

Calibrated probabilistic mesoscale forecasting with ensembles via Bayesian model averaging

Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Balabdaoui and T. Gneiting

8:45 AM

4.2

Bayesian Processor of Output: A New Technique for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

Poster PDF (127.1 kB)

9:00 AM

4.3

Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Forecasting of Precipitation Occurrence

Coire J. Maranzano, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz

Poster PDF (210.9 kB)

9:15 AM

4.4

Bayesian approach to decision making using ensemble weather forecasts

Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Ehrendorfer

9:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Coffee Break

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Fourth Presidential Policy Forum: Weather and National Security (Room 6AB)

Sponsors: (Joint between the Events; the The Norm Phillips Symposium; the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; the Symposium on Space Weather; the 18th Conference on Hydrology; the 20th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology; the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; the Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting, and Forecasting in the Urban Zone; and the Interactive Symposium on the Nexus of Coastal Urban Environments )

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Ensemble Forecasting (Room 602/603)

Location: Room 602/603

Sponsor: 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Laurence J. Wilson, MSC; Richard W. Katz, NCAR

Papers:

5.1

Using Ensemble DMOS to produce probabilistic forecasts

1:45 PM

5.2

Pre-processing of Atmospheric Forcing for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

John Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. Perica, M. Mullusky, J. Demargne, E. Welles, and L. Wu

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (374.3 kB)

2:00 PM

5.3

Model Consensus and Ensemble Weighting for spot forecasts

Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (52.0 kB)

2:15 PM

5.4

Impact of Model Error and Imperfect IC Perturbation on Evolution of Ensemble-based PDFs in NWP model

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

2:30 PM

5.5

Ensemble Re-Forecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and X. Wei

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (604.7 kB)

2:45 PM

5.6

Calibration of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts from the ECMWF EPS by an Artificial Neural Network

Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza

Recorded presentation

3:00 PM

5.7

Toward a nonlinear ensemble filter for high-dimensional systems

C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Bengtsson and D. Nychka

3:15 PM

5.4a

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Exhibits open 1:30–7:30 P.M.)

4:45 PM-4:45 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Sessions end for the day

6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 January 2004

AMS Annual Awards Banquet

Thursday, 15 January 2004

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

THUR 15 JAN

8:30 AM-11:30 AM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

Statistical Climatology (Room 602/603)

Location: Room 602/603

Sponsor: 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia; Simon J. Mason, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction

Papers:

8:30 AM

6.1

Cross-validation for selection of statistical models

Simon J. Mason, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

6.2

From global mean responses to regional signals of climate change: simple pattern scaling, its limitations (or lack of) and the uncertainty in its results

Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Nychka and L. O. Mearns

Poster PDF (1.7 MB)

9:00 AM

6.3

Evaluation of GCM/RCM by the classified synoptic systems' approach

Isabella Osetinsky, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; and P. Alpert

Poster PDF (372.0 kB)

9:15 AM

6.4

Getting rid of El Nino

Cécile Penland, NOAA-CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and L. Matrosova

Poster PDF (120.5 kB)

9:30 AM

6.5

Nonlinear Empirical Modeling

Sue Ellen Haupt, Utah State University, Logan, UT

Poster PDF (116.8 kB)

9:45 AM

6.6

On the Chances of Being Struck by Cloud-to-Ground Lightning

E. Philip Krider, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. E. Kehoe

Poster PDF (584.1 kB)

10:00 AM

6.7

The calculation of the statistical error of measured turbulent fluxes—considerations and improvement

Peter Zittel, Aerospace Systems at Technical Univ., Braunschweig, Germany; and T. Spiess and J. Bange

Poster PDF (149.3 kB)

10:15 AM

6.5a

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

Lunch Break

12:30 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

Exhibit Hours

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

Joint Session 12

Forecast Verification (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: William R. Burrows, MSC; Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Papers:

1:30 PM

J12.1

Summer Season Verification of the First NWS Operational WRF Model Forecasts from the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative Project in Northeast Florida

P. Bogenschutz, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Ruscher, P. Welsh, J. Mahoney, J. A. McGinley, M. Kay, B. Shaw, J. Smart, J. Savadel, and J. McQueen

Poster PDF (441.6 kB)

1:45 PM

J12.2

Verification of National Weather Service forecasts of maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation: a 30-year perspective

J. Paul Dallavalle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and V. J. Dagostaro

2:00 PM

J12.3

The new and improved Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) analysis and prediction system

Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli

Poster PDF (315.5 kB)

2:15 PM

J12.4

An Object-Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part I—Methodology

Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, M. Chapman, K. W. Manning, and R. Morss

Poster PDF (232.3 kB)

2:30 PM

J12.5

An Object Oriented Approach to the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Part II—Examples

Michael Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, B. G. Brown, C. A. Davis, K. W. Manning, R. Morss, and A. Takacs

Poster PDF (216.2 kB)

2:45 PM

J12.6

Bias normalized precipitation scores

Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill

Poster PDF (2.4 MB)

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall (Exhibits open 1:30-6:00 P.M.)

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

Registration Desk Closes

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 15 January 2004

Joint Session 13

Verification of Gridded Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and the17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences) (Room 6A)

Location: Room 6A

Sponsors: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )

Chair: Mary M. Cairns, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Papers:

3:30 PM

J13.1

MVT—An Automated Mesoscale Verification Tool

Scott A. Sandgathe, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. Heiss

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

3:45 PM

J13.2

A global version of MM5: Method and verification

Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. F. Bresch

Poster PDF (396.7 kB)