84th AMS Annual Meeting

Thursday, 15 January 2004: 1:30 PM
Summer Season Verification of the First NWS Operational WRF Model Forecasts from the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative Project in Northeast Florida
Room 6A
P. Bogenschutz, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Ruscher, P. Welsh, J. Mahoney, J. A. McGinley, M. Kay, B. Shaw, J. Smart, J. Savadel, and J. McQueen
Poster PDF (441.6 kB)
In an effort to test the validity of high-resolution local model forecasting, the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative included support for the development of a Linux Beowulf cluster on which the new WRF model would be run four times per day. Using both “cold-start” and “hot-start” modes, the WRF has been run since late in May 2003 at a resolution of 5 km over a domain including a substantial portion of Florida, Georgia, and adjacent coastal waters.

The project included a first experimental phase during which the WRF was run operationally and in real-time at NWS Jacksonville (JAX). Output data were provided to NOAA Forecast Systems Lab to be incorporated into their Real Time Verification Statistics (RTVS) web site. Output grids were also saved on DVDs for later analysis. Systematic errors are examined over the entire model domain using the RTVS compiled statistics, as analyzed at Florida State University. In addition, several case studies, including cases of severe thunderstorms, and at least one tropical cyclone case, are summarized in our presentation. We compare forecasts of hot-start and cold-start runs of WRF with the 12 km eta model using a variety of statistical procedures, including feature-based methods. Our preliminary analysis will also include analysis of cool season events, as they are available from fall/winter 2003 cases.

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