In order to effect this assessment, the quality of the UMOS solutions will be compared against that of Great Lakes wind forecasts obtained from three sources: the direct output of the regional GEM model, the official marine forecast issued for the Great Lakes by the Ontario Region of the MSC, and the recently implemented MOS system developed by the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) of the National Weather Service (NWS). Conventional summary scores, such as the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error, attest to the superiority of the UMOS solutions over the direct output from the GEM model, particularly for the forecasts of windspeed. The inherently discrete nature of the official marine forecasts suggested a distributions-oriented approach to the verification, for which the categories of wind speed and direction were dictated by the highly structured and codifed form (the MAFOR) of the marine forecast issued for the St. Lawrence Seaway. Not only does such a distributions-oriented comparison demonstrate the overall superiority of the UMOS forecasts, it refines the characterization of the performance of the forecast systems by displaying their systematic biases as a function of the speed and direction of the wind. The MDL MOS forecasts were introduced into operational service in the spring of 2003, so a comparison of this forecast system to UMOS will take place in the fall of 2003, with the accumulation of a larger sample of forecasts. Although both forecast systems are based on the MOS formulation, there are some significant differences in the implementation of this formulation, particularly in the choice of predictands, and a casual inspection of their solutions reveals some noticeable differences. Results of the comparison between the UMOS and MDL MOS solutions will be discussed in the context of these differences.
Lastly, some consideration is given to the climatological predictors used in the regression equations for the windspeed. This predictand exhibits a strong seasonal signal, whose accurate resolution in the statistical models is complicated by the incomplete monitoring programme in place on the Great Lakes. This problem will be elucidated, and a possible solution discussed.
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