84th AMS Annual Meeting

Session 2: Forecast Evaluation (Room 3A)

Tuesday, 13 January 2004: 8:30 AM-2:30 PM
Room 3A
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Cochairs:  Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS and Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC
Papers:
  8:30 AM
2.1
Verifying probabilistic forecasts: calibration and sharpness
Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery, F. Balabdaoui, and A. Westveld

  9:00 AM
2.2
Assessing the Skill of Yes/No Forecasts for Markov Observations
William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY; and D. Ruppert

http://wmbriggs.com/public/weathermarkov.pdf

Poster PDF (219.6 kB)
  9:15 AM
2.3
The minimum spanning tree (MST) histogram as a verification tool for multidimensional ensemble forecasts
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

  9:30 AM
2.4
Selecting METARs to verify Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Braid and A. Holmes

Poster PDF (405.0 kB)
  9:45 AM
2.5
Improving forecast verification through network design
Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/staff/ericg

Poster PDF (262.2 kB)
  10:00 AM
2.6
Defining observation fields for verification of spatial forecasts of convection
Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hart and B. G. Brown

Poster PDF (228.9 kB)
  10:15 AM
2.7
A Prototype Verification System for Examining NDFD Forecasts
Valery J. Dagostaro, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. A. Shaffer, M. J. Schenk, J. L. Gorline, and A. A. Taylor

Poster PDF (375.3 kB)
  10:45 AM
2.8
Spatial verification using the relative operating characteristic curve
Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and W. R. Burrows

Poster PDF (243.1 kB)
  11:00 AM
2.9
Examining the sensitivity of various performance measures
Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL and NOAA/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain

Poster PDF (235.0 kB)
  11:15 AM
2.10
The Critical Success Index and warning strategy
Harry Gerapetritis, NOAA/NWS, Greer, SC; and J. M. Pelissier

Poster PDF (216.3 kB)
  11:30 AM
2.11
Geospatial Uncertainty Analysis and Gridded Forecast Verification
Michael E. Splitt, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Cook and E. Petrescu

Poster PDF (554.3 kB)
  11:45 AM
2.4A
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

  1:00 PM
2.7A
Lunch Break

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