Wednesday, 14 January 2004: 2:00 PM
Impact of Model Error and Imperfect IC Perturbation on Evolution of Ensemble-based PDFs in NWP model
Room 602/603
One of the ultimate goal of ensemble forecasting is to reliably
estimate the time-evolution of probabilistic density functions
(PDFs) of meteorological fields, given existing of intrinsic
uncertainties in both initial condition (IC) and model physics.
However, due to model error and imperfect IC perturbations used
in real-world ensemble forecasting, it is believed that this
task is extremely difficult if not impossible. Currently, little
is known about the impact of model error or imperfect perturbations
on the evolution of ensemble-based PDFs in operational numerical
weather prediction (NWP) models. Since it's impossible to study
the PDF evolution for full fields in full space, this preliminary
study uses only a small subset of fields at fixed locations to
demonstrate how their PDFs evolve when model error or imperfect
IC perturbation or both of them present in an ensemble system.
The NCEP short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system which
based on two regional models (Eta and RSM) and bred IC perturbations
was used in this study.
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